Kalshi trading
+0.13% versus prior period
Prediction Markets: Volume, Trends & Odds
See where trading is growing, what is driving it, and whether the same story holds across platforms.
Kalshi: +0.13% over 7 days; -7.06% in 2026-08. The weekly move and the longer trend need separate readings.
Seven-day trading: Polymarket $523.62m · Kalshi $2.87bn
Which other exchanges are growing?
Six named venue records, each compared with its own past. No platform share or combined market total is inferred.
2026-09-03 to 2026-09-09 · 6 separate exchange records
Which smaller exchange grew—and by how much?
Compare each venue with its own preceding equal-length period. These records are not combined into a market total.
| Exchange | Earlier trading | Selected trading | Growth | Dollar change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $2.76bn | $2.94bn | +6.58% | $181.28m |
| Polymarket International | $531.42m | $499.64m | -5.98% | $-31.77m |
| Polymarket US | $325.33m | $417.81m | +28.42% | $92.47m |
| Opinion | $77.07m | $82.71m | +7.31% | $5.64m |
| Predict Fun | $73.14m | $68.85m | -5.87% | $-4.29m |
| Limitless | $2.27m | $3.55m | +56.38% | $1.28m |
Charlie’s viewOf the smaller exchanges listed here, Limitless had the highest percentage change (+56.38%). Opinion added the most reported trading dollars ($5.64m). A small base can produce the fastest percentage growth without the largest dollar gain.
Scope and supporting evidence
On these same dates, the wider Polymarket International record differs from the detailed record by -13,314,634 dollars (-2.596%). The cause is unresolved. Platform shares and combined totals are withheld; each venue is compared only with its own earlier record.
Polymarket International and US remain separate. Reported turnover is not deposits or unique money; coverage and trading exclusions can differ by venue.
What changed inside Kalshi and Polymarket?
2026-09-04 to 2026-09-10 · compared with 2026-08-28 to 2026-09-03
Polymarket trading
+1.90% versus prior period
Kalshi sports growth
$1.52bn traded
Kalshi crypto share change
30.6% of Kalshi trading
Charlie’s viewKalshi trading changed +0.13%; Polymarket changed +1.90%. Both platforms moved in the same direction.
Remove the obvious driver
Does growth survive without sports?
Keep the same dates. Remove sports from each platform. See whether the rest is moving too.
Polymarket
All categories+1.90%
Without sports-4.48%
$149.28m traded outside sports.
Kalshi
All categories+0.13%
Without sports-0.33%
$1.35bn traded outside sports.
Follow the change, not just the size
Which subjects are gaining ground?
Polymarket
| Subject | Trading | Change | Share change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | $374.34m | +4.68% | +1.90 pts |
| Crypto | $93.86m | -0.91% | -0.51 pts |
| Politics | $23.53m | -2.39% | -0.20 pts |
| Finance & economy | $12.65m | -18.83% | -0.62 pts |
| Weather | $12.18m | +2.59% | +0.02 pts |
| Technology | $2.73m | -20.04% | -0.14 pts |
| World | $1.94m | -45.26% | -0.32 pts |
| Culture | $1.80m | -35.10% | -0.20 pts |
| Other | $585.69k | +126.92% | +0.06 pts |
| Health | $0.00 | No complete comparison | +0.00 pts |
Charlie’s viewSports added the most trading dollars: $16.74m. Finance & economy lost the most: $2.93m.
Kalshi
| Subject | Trading | Change | Share change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | $1.52bn | +0.54% | +0.22 pts |
| Crypto | $879.26m | -6.63% | -2.22 pts |
| Other | $362.19m | +22.18% | +2.28 pts |
| Finance & economy | $91.25m | -6.72% | -0.23 pts |
| Politics | $8.37m | -1.34% | -0.00 pts |
| Weather | $6.62m | +2.10% | +0.00 pts |
| Culture | $2.60m | -20.98% | -0.02 pts |
| Technology | $784.09k | -38.73% | -0.02 pts |
| World | $38.34 | +206.35% | +0.00 pts |
| Health | $0.00 | No complete comparison | +0.00 pts |
Charlie’s viewOther added the most trading dollars: $65.74m. Crypto lost the most: $62.45m.
A smaller share is not always a retreat
Is crypto shrinking, or being outgrown?
Polymarket
Charlie’s viewCrypto trading changed -0.91% while sports changed +4.68%. Crypto’s share moved -0.51 percentage points.
Kalshi
Charlie’s viewCrypto trading changed -6.63% while sports changed +0.54%. Crypto’s share moved -2.22 percentage points.
Participation check
More trading, or more wallets trading?
Polymarket wallets per day
-2.88% versus prior period
Polymarket trades
-0.66% versus prior period
Average Polymarket trade
Dollars traded divided by trades
Kalshi contracts traded
+8.46% versus prior period
Charlie’s viewPolymarket trading changed +1.90% and its average daily wallet count changed -2.88%. A wallet can trade repeatedly; this is not a count of people or new customers.
The longer view
Did the change last beyond one week?
Completed calendar months · dollars traded
Charlie’s view2026-08 against the previous month: Polymarket -33.01%, Kalshi -7.06%. Compare this with the shorter period above: a weekly rebound can sit inside a monthly decline.
Charlie’s view2026-08 against the same month a year earlier: Polymarket +357.50%, Kalshi +2983.58%.
Read the monthly figures
| Month | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-08 | $522.23m | $370.77m |
| 2025-09 | $777.91m | $1.34bn |
| 2025-10 | $1.70bn | $2.01bn |
| 2025-11 | $2.07bn | $2.65bn |
| 2025-12 | $2.38bn | $2.67bn |
| 2026-01 | $3.53bn | $3.76bn |
| 2026-02 | $3.74bn | $4.19bn |
| 2026-03 | $4.98bn | $5.19bn |
| 2026-04 | $4.21bn | $5.42bn |
| 2026-05 | $3.26bn | $6.16bn |
| 2026-06 | $4.19bn | $9.64bn |
| 2026-07 | $3.57bn | $12.30bn |
| 2026-08 | $2.39bn | $11.43bn |
Change the window. Challenge the story.
Is Kalshi moving away from crypto?
| Window | Crypto trading | Change vs prior window | Change in Kalshi share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | $879.26m | -6.63% | -2.22 points |
| 30 days | $3.81bn | +17.00% | +2.89 points |
| 90 days | $9.47bn | +264.58% | +12.05 points |
Charlie’s viewA loss of share can mean other subjects grew faster, not that crypto trading fell. Check the longer windows before calling a short-term change a retreat. These figures do not establish that Kalshi is removing crypto markets.
Ask history to argue back
When crypto grew but lost share, did growth last?
Look at earlier weeks when crypto trading rose but other subjects grew faster. Then compare the following week with ordinary weeks from the same record.
Polymarket
Typical following-week change
15 completed episodes
Ordinary-week comparison
28 completed comparison windows
Charlie’s viewCrypto trading rose in 10 of 15 following weeks. The typical change was stronger than the calendar comparison. A positive number alone is not an edge.
Read the individual outcomes
| Week ending | Crypto growth that week | Share change | Following-week trading |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | +3.87% | -0.67 pts | +14.40% |
| 2025-09-02 | +1.34% | -3.57 pts | -8.53% |
| 2025-09-25 | +2.04% | -1.40 pts | -5.43% |
| 2025-10-19 | +13.90% | -0.28 pts | -12.91% |
| 2025-11-29 | +3.65% | -0.86 pts | -3.68% |
| 2025-12-24 | +23.03% | -1.32 pts | +26.34% |
| 2026-01-12 | +4.44% | -0.28 pts | +6.15% |
| 2026-01-28 | +1.58% | -1.40 pts | +14.26% |
| 2026-02-27 | +1.45% | -3.82 pts | +15.06% |
| 2026-03-23 | +3.76% | -2.05 pts | +0.83% |
| 2026-04-15 | +1.02% | -0.08 pts | +0.39% |
| 2026-05-13 | +4.78% | -0.30 pts | -0.21% |
| 2026-05-28 | +0.80% | -0.40 pts | +39.27% |
| 2026-06-19 | +0.94% | -7.24 pts | +1.93% |
| 2026-08-20 | +5.84% | -1.55 pts | +13.25% |
Kalshi
Typical following-week change
16 completed episodes
Ordinary-week comparison
28 completed comparison windows
Charlie’s viewCrypto trading rose in 11 of 16 following weeks. The typical change was weaker than the calendar comparison. A positive number alone is not an edge.
1 episode has no complete following week yet.
Read the individual outcomes
| Week ending | Crypto growth that week | Share change | Following-week trading |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-19 | +23.41% | -0.14 pts | -21.84% |
| 2025-09-07 | +29.50% | -1.91 pts | -7.62% |
| 2025-09-21 | +20.97% | -0.23 pts | -8.15% |
| 2025-10-31 | +0.63% | -0.17 pts | +12.42% |
| 2025-12-21 | +20.26% | -0.00 pts | -29.29% |
| 2026-01-04 | +23.54% | -0.04 pts | +45.03% |
| 2026-02-13 | +24.17% | -0.30 pts | +20.02% |
| 2026-03-07 | +2.10% | -0.18 pts | -8.95% |
| 2026-03-25 | +12.05% | -0.12 pts | +1.00% |
| 2026-04-10 | +2.00% | -1.06 pts | +15.99% |
| 2026-04-26 | +0.71% | -2.33 pts | +1.65% |
| 2026-05-24 | +9.10% | -0.53 pts | +6.69% |
| 2026-06-13 | +12.46% | -1.91 pts | +31.21% |
| 2026-06-27 | +10.34% | -1.16 pts | +12.83% |
| 2026-08-03 | +1.84% | -0.49 pts | +4.59% |
| 2026-08-20 | +5.81% | -0.38 pts | +19.97% |
| 2026-09-04 | +4.06% | -1.65 pts | No complete comparison |
Small historical samples. These are changes in trading volume, not coin returns. Ordinary comparison weeks can overlap the episode sample; neither establishes a cause or a forecast.
How steady was the crowd?
Last 90 completed days · distinct trading wallets each day
Charlie’s viewPolymarket’s average daily wallet count, against each preceding window: 7 days: -2.88%, 30 days: -25.45%, 90 days: -34.54%. This checks whether the weekly change persists when we widen the view; it does not count new customers.
Connect the odds to the asset
What supports Bitcoin’s price case?
Choose an exact market. Read its target and deadline alongside the daily trend, weekly trend and fund demand.
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?
YES quote
Price for a $1 payout if YES wins
Target versus last completed close
78,455.80 USDT per BTC
Reaches the level at any point during the named month, using a one-minute high. It does not need to finish the month above it.
Quote: 2026-09-13 16:20 UTC. Contract ends 2026-10-01 04:00 UTC. Price comparison: 2026-09-08 completed close.
What supports the price case—and what pushes back?
Daily trend
The 50-day average is 69,994.70, above the 200-day average of 69,901.39 USDT.
The upward crossing appeared on 2026-09-08. That confirms an improvement in the daily trend; it does not set a target.
Explore Bitcoin’s longer price cycleWeekly test
The same daily close is 2.39% below the 50-week average of 80,373.10 USDT.
That weekly average uses completed weeks through 2026-09-06. Daily and weekly trends can disagree.
Trading behind the move
Trading in the tracked Bitcoin spot pair was 1.27× its preceding 30-day daily average. More activity can include selling as well as buying.
Examine the trading behind crypto ralliesETF demand
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $46.65m of net outflows on 2026-09-08. This is a separate demand reading, not a reason to adjust the market’s odds by a fixed amount.
Charlie’s viewRead the tension, not a vote count. A daily trend improvement can coexist with an unconfirmed weekly recovery and weak fund demand. None of these readings alone tells us whether this exact contract will settle YES.
Read the exact market terms ↗Which odds moved—and had trading behind them?
Two cases worth examining: the largest qualifying daily move on each of these two platforms. The quote is the price of a $1 YES payout, not a promise that the event happens.
Quote window: 2026-09-13 16:20 UTC · daily changes cover the preceding 24 hours.
Polymarket · Politics
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
33.00–35.00¢+11.50 points over 24 hours
$26.43k traded in 24 hours
Read the market question ↗Kalshi · Crypto
Bitcoin price on Sep 18, 2026? — $78,500 or above
34.00–35.00¢-7.00 points over 24 hours
2,363 contracts traded in 24 hours
Read the market question ↗Charlie’s viewA large move in a thinly traded contract deserves a different reading from the same move with heavy trading. Read the event wording and the two quoted prices together; a wide gap makes the last traded price less useful.
Follow the question
Ask about the difference.
Compare platforms, subjects or periods. Ask what changes when the biggest driver is removed.
Measured platform trading: 7 days
7 days: 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-10; comparison 2026-08-28 to 2026-09-03. The two measured platforms together: $3.39bn traded, a dollar change of $13.43m (+0.40%). Polymarket: $523.62m traded, a dollar change of $9.74m (+1.90%); 15.43% of measured trading, share change +0.23 points. Kalshi: $2.87bn traded, a dollar change of $3.69m (+0.13%); 84.57% of measured trading, share change -0.23 points. Removing Polymarket, the largest dollar-change contributor, leaves +0.13% trading growth. Share can rise while a platform’s own trading falls. This comparison covers these two platforms, not the whole market.