+9 days
Does Bitcoin still follow its four-year clock?
The timing rhymed; the return did not
The latest high arrived at roughly the same post-halving age as the two earlier cycles. Its gain was much smaller. Timing and size are separate facts.
Today881days after halving
2016
2020
2024
Bitcoin close$80,884Complete day · 18 Sep
Days since halving881Same-age comparison
Return since halving+24.4%Current cycle
Highest close so far$124,7532025-10-06
Highest-close dayDay 534Not a declared cycle top
Gain at that high+91.9%From the halving close
From highest close-35.2%Damage since the high
Versus 200-day line+14.9%Long price trend
Put every cycle at the same age.
The old cycles are stopped at the exact age of the current one. That avoids comparing today with a completed old bull market.
Halving cycleSame ageMatching dateReturn since halvingHighest-close dayGain at highFrom high
2016Day 8812018-12-07+425.4%Day 525+2895.2%-82.5%
2020Day 8812022-10-09+126.1%Day 546+685.5%-71.2%
2024Day 8812026-09-18+24.4%Day 534+91.9%-35.2%
The clock matched better than the payoff.
The latest highest close arrived on day 534. The older highest closes arrived on days 525 and 546. Yet the current high gained 91.9%, roughly 1698.4 percentage points below the old-cycle average.
Timing range525–546old peak days
Current high534post-halving day
Current payoff92%gain from halving close
Does the answer depend on one old cycle?
Against 2016 alone, the latest high was 9 days later. Against 2020 alone, it was 12 days earlier. The timing claim does not need an average to look convincing.
-12 days
What would break the reading?
A new highest close would move the current peak day and rewrite the timing comparison. A sustained move below the 200-day line would weaken the long trend. Today Bitcoin is +14.9% from that line and -8.8% this year.