Cross-asset · ETH/BTC vs copper/gold
The Copper/Gold
of Crypto
Copper/gold is the macro world's internal risk dial: growth metal over haven metal. ETH/BTC is crypto's version of the same question. If both answer to one real-rate drum, they should rise and fall together — and when they stop agreeing, one of them is lying. This page keeps score.
Updated 19 September 2026 · 04:26 UTC · Prices as of 19 September 2026 · Sources: daily prices from Yahoo Finance (bitcoin, ether, copper, gold) and US Federal Reserve data on 10-year real yields
The divergence gap
Each ratio is compared against its own range over the past year — a z-score, meaning how unusual today is in plain units; beyond ±2 is rare — and then the two scores are subtracted. The alarm trips at ±2: a level gap can never trigger it, only a genuine disagreement about direction.
-1.02σWITHIN BAND
Current gap: ETH/BTC minus copper/gold, in standard deviations. The 90-day rolling correlation of their daily changes is -0.07 (full 3-year sample: +0.08) — correlation being a score from −1 (always opposite) to +1 (always together). 5 divergence episodes beyond 2σ are on record for this window.
Charlie's readNo alarm. The gap is -1.02σ, comfortably inside the ±2 band where the two dials merely disagree by a normal amount. Whatever each market is pricing, they are not telling contradictory stories today.
ETH/BTC ratio0.0320Crypto's internal risk dial.Charlie's readOne ether currently costs 0.0320 bitcoin. When this ratio rises, traders are reaching for the riskier end of crypto; when it falls, they are hiding in bitcoin — the market's 'safest' coin.
Copper/gold ratio0.0015Macro's internal risk dial.Charlie's readCopper is the metal of growth (building, wiring, manufacturing); gold is the metal of fear. When this ratio rises, the macro world is betting on growth; when it falls, it is buying insurance.
90d corr of changes-0.07Are they moving to one drum right now?Charlie's readNo — at -0.07 they are effectively independent right now. Whatever shared drum exists is too faint to hear over the last 90 days.
10-year real yield2.61%The interest rate on inflation-protected US government bonds — the "real" cost of money — observed 17 September 2026.Charlie's readThe real yield is 2.61% as of 17 September 2026. This is the return on offer for lending to the US government with inflation protection — when it rises, 'risk-on' assets everywhere tend to struggle, which is exactly the drum this page suspects both ratios march to.
Two dials, one chart
Both ratios rebased to 100 at the start of the window so their shapes are comparable. They will not sit on top of each other — the question is whether they turn at the same times.
ETH/BTC (rebased)Copper/gold (rebased)
When the drumbeat fades
The 90-day rolling correlation of daily ratio changes, then the z-score gap itself with the ±2σ alarm band. Episodes above the band are the rows in the ledger below.
90d correlation
Z-score gap±2σ alarm band
Divergence ledger
Every run of at least three trading days with the gap beyond 2σ: when it opened, when it closed, how wide it got, and which ratio was the rich one.
| Opened | Closed | Days | Widest gap | Rich side |
|---|
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-03-28 | 18 | 2.43σ | Copper/gold rich |
| 2025-07-31 | 2025-10-27 | 89 | 3.79σ | ETH/BTC rich |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-11-13 | 7 | 2.27σ | ETH/BTC rich |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-01-29 | 4 | 2.57σ | ETH/BTC rich |
| 2026-06-04 | 2026-08-14 | 72 | 3.14σ | Copper/gold rich |
The real-rate drum, tested
If the one-drum hypothesis holds, changes in the 10-year inflation-protected US bond yield should lean on both ratios in the same direction. Correlation of daily changes, full sample and latest 90 days, printed side by side so neither window can flatter the story alone.
Real yield vs ETH/BTC · full / 90d-0.06 / -0.18Correlation of daily changes: the 10-year real yield against crypto's risk dial.Charlie's readOver the full three years, crypto's dial leans against rising real yields, weakly (-0.06). Over the latest 90 days: -0.18.
Real yield vs copper/gold · full / 90d+0.03 / -0.13Same test against the macro dial — the benchmark the hypothesis has to clear.Charlie's readOver the full three years, the macro dial barely notices real yields (+0.03). Over the latest 90 days: -0.13.
The bottom line
Everything above, compressed into plain English: what the two dials say right now, what Charlie watches next, and what would prove the one-drum idea wrong.
Charlie's read · 19 September 2026 · 04:26 UTCAs of 19 September 2026: the two risk dials — ETH/BTC in crypto, copper/gold in macro — move together at -0.07 over the last 90 days (+0.08 over three years), the divergence gap reads -1.02σ (no alarm), and 5 true divergence episode(s) are on record. On the driver test, only crypto's dial clearly answers to real yields — the shared-drum story works better for crypto than for metals right now. What Charlie watches next: the 90-day correlation — if it rebuilds toward +0.3 while real yields fall, both dials should rise together, and crypto's usually moves further. What would prove the idea wrong: the gap camping beyond ±2σ for weeks, or the dials answering real yields in opposite directions — either means there is no shared drum, just occasional shared shocks.
For the statistically curious
The full plumbing — exact data definitions, index construction, and honest limitations. Nothing below changes a number above; it only explains how the numbers were built.
Methodology, data sources and limitations
Method. Daily closes from Yahoo Finance (3-year window, export timestamped 19 September 2026 · 04:26 UTC; tickers BTC-USD, ETH-USD, HG=F, GC=F). Copper/gold is HG=F ÷ GC=F on futures trading days; ETH/BTC is ETH-USD ÷ BTC-USD carried onto those days. Correlations run on daily log changes of the ratios. The divergence gap z-scores each log ratio against its own trailing 252 days and subtracts. Real rates are the US Federal Reserve's FRED series DFII10 (10-year TIPS, daily), observed 17 September 2026. An episode is a contiguous run beyond ±2σ lasting at least 3 days.
Limits. ETH/BTC is dominated at times by crypto-internal events (upgrades, ETF flows, staking) that no real rate can explain; copper/gold carries Chinese credit and supply shocks. Front-month copper embeds roll yield. A 90-day window is short enough to be seduced by a single shared shock. Correlation of changes is not co-movement of levels, and neither is causation. If the FRED or price feed fails, the affected section is labelled unavailable — missing data is never shown as zero.
