The Twin Test
The Curve reentrancy exploit has the largest market-adjusted 30-day move in this library: -31.9 points. The typical absolute event gap is 6.2 points, and 4 of 16 comparisons are rarer than 90% of their untouched controls.
This page asks a simple question: how much did a coin move after an event, once the move that similar coins made anyway is removed? It also shows when the comparison is thin, ordinary or dominated by one example.
ACTUAL
SIMILAR COINS
DIFFERENCE
remove the market before crediting the event
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What changed after the market was removed?
The actual coin move and the move in similar unaffected coins stay side by side. Their difference is never presented as certain proof.
| Event | Coin | Type | Date | Actual move | Similar coins | Difference | Controls as extreme | Comparison coins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Curve reentrancy exploit | Curve | Protocol exploit | 2023-07-30 | -34.0% | -2.0% | -31.9% | 3.3% | 90 |
| The Mango Markets manipulation | Solana | Protocol exploit | 2022-10-11 | -55.9% | -24.8% | -31.2% | 7.7% | 90 |
| Ripple's partial court win | XRP | Court ruling | 2023-07-13 | +34.1% | +9.1% | +25.1% | 8.8% | 90 |
| The SEC sues Binance | BNB | Enforcement action | 2023-06-05 | -20.5% | +4.1% | -24.6% | 3.3% | 90 |
| The Radiant Capital hack | Radiant Capital | Protocol exploit | 2024-10-16 | -27.7% | -9.0% | -18.7% | 11.0% | 90 |
| FTX collapses | Solana | Exchange failure | 2022-11-08 | -54.5% | -36.4% | -18.0% | 12.1% | 90 |
| The Bybit hack | Ethereum | Exchange hack | 2025-02-21 | -27.7% | -21.0% | -6.6% | 54.9% | 90 |
| Binance settles with the DOJ | BNB | Enforcement action | 2023-11-21 | +2.8% | +9.4% | -6.5% | 74.7% | 90 |
| Staked Ether unlocked | Ethereum | Protocol upgrade | 2023-04-12 | -5.1% | -10.9% | +5.9% | 40.7% | 90 |
| USDC breaks its peg | Ethereum | Stablecoin stress | 2023-03-11 | +30.3% | +24.9% | +5.4% | 62.6% | 90 |
| The WazirX hack | Ethereum | Exchange hack | 2024-07-18 | -23.5% | -18.1% | -5.4% | 50.5% | 90 |
| Mt. Gox starts repaying | Bitcoin | Supply event | 2024-07-05 | +6.4% | +1.8% | +4.6% | 58.2% | 90 |
| Spot Bitcoin ETFs approved | Bitcoin | Regulatory approval | 2024-01-10 | -1.8% | +1.8% | -3.6% | 76.9% | 90 |
| Spot Ether ETFs cleared | Ethereum | Regulatory approval | 2024-05-23 | -5.9% | -4.7% | -1.2% | 86.8% | 90 |
| The Merge | Ethereum | Protocol upgrade | 2022-09-15 | -20.9% | -20.3% | -0.6% | 95.6% | 90 |
| Solana's five-hour outage | Solana | Network failure | 2024-02-06 | +36.7% | +37.0% | -0.2% | 98.9% | 90 |
The Curve reentrancy exploit has the largest market-adjusted 30-day move in this library: -31.9 points. The typical absolute event gap is 6.2 points, and 4 of 16 comparisons are rarer than 90% of their untouched controls.
Does the library survive its largest example?
The most extreme event is removed before the typical result is read again.