Signal Autopsy
2 of 9 popular indicators still worked on later prices after all 54 tests were counted.
This page tests popular market rules on later prices, counts every attempted time window and shows when a striking result depends on one rule.
2 SURVIVE
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Which rules held up?
Every rule had to work on later prices it was not chosen on. All attempted time windows were counted.
| Indicator | Verdict | Best window | Link to later price | Right later | Stay invested | Extra return | Later occasions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What Bitcoin did last month | Held up | 10 days | 0.104 | 62% | 41% | +9.1% | 47 |
| How many coins are overextended | Held up | 5 days | 0.014 | 49% | 43% | +0.0% | 109 |
| How many coins are above trend | Did not hold up | 20 days | 0.146 | 15% | 32% | -4.6% | 54 |
| How differently coins are moving | Did not hold up | 10 days | 0.110 | 32% | 41% | -0.0% | 99 |
| How many coins are at a three-month low | Did not hold up | 30 days | 0.102 | 35% | 30% | +2.6% | 225 |
| How violent the last month has been | Did not hold up | 60 days | 0.086 | 48% | 34% | +10.8% | 29 |
| How much the market moves as one | Did not hold up | 60 days | 0.065 | 37% | 34% | +7.1% | 196 |
| How far Bitcoin is below its high | Did not hold up | 20 days | 0.044 | 39% | 32% | +4.8% | 109 |
| How many coins are beating Bitcoin | Did not hold up | 30 days | 0.032 | 1% | 30% | -9.3% | 72 |
2 of 9 popular indicators still worked on later prices after all 54 tests were counted. The rest may still describe the market, but this record does not support a forecasting claim.
Does one rule carry the story?
Remove the strongest survivor and count again.
Without What Bitcoin did last month, 1 indicators still pass.