Is the money tide helping markets?
Money conditions disagree
2 of 4 separate checks are helping risk assets. Available central-bank money changed +1.2% in four weeks, while Bitcoin changed +20.3% over 90 days. One does not prove the other caused it.
Four-week direction
+1.2%Direction only · not to scale
+1.2%Direction only · not to scale
Available money · 4 weeks+1.2%Federal Reserve balance minus two cash drains.
Available money · 12 weeks-3.4%The slower direction.
Risky-company borrowing cost2.70%-0.05 points in 20 readings.
Bitcoin · 90 days+20.3%A separate market reaction.
What fills or drains the pool?
The Federal Reserve balance adds to the rough measure. Cash parked overnight and the Treasury’s bank balance are subtracted.
Do independent markets agree?
These checks are not blended. A falling real yield can help risky assets while wider credit spreads warn that lenders are becoming nervous.
Borrowing pressure eased across the last 20 readings.
The discount-rate pressure increased.
Ten-year rate minus two-year rate. It describes the rate shape, not tomorrow’s market.
Did crypto’s own dollar supply grow?
USDT and USDC supply changed Not available in 30 days. More digital dollars exist when this rises; it does not prove they were spent on Bitcoin or any other asset.
Not enough history to draw this chart.
What would change the reading?
The strongest answer comes when available money rises, credit spreads narrow, real yields fall and stablecoin supply grows. Today, 2 of those four point in the helpful direction.
