Proxy mismatch
SEA/FDX is not the Baltic Dry Index; if shipping ETFs disagree with physical rates, mark soft.
Real-economy mood ·
The freight-versus-fuel mood prints -7.8% on the latest ten-day block (freight move minus oil move). Stress streaks — mood below −5ppt — currently run 4 blocks, longest 7. When fuel rises while freight softens, the ring turns anxious even if Bitcoin still looks cheerful.
Read the real-economy mood ring from freight versus fuel — streaks of stress, after-what strength, and whether crypto is ignoring it.
Ring
A single oil headline is not a mood. The ring subtracts fuel stress from freight motion.
Latest mood -7.8%; after-what -0.69x.
Parts
When both rise together, activity is hot. When oil rises alone, the ring turns anxious.
Latest block oil +13.5% vs freight +5.7%.
Bridge
Divergence is publishable when it repeats: cheerful crypto against a stressed freight-fuel ring.
Bitcoin's same-block move -1.6% against mood -7.8%.
Falsifiers
Every edge on this desk dies if one of these flips. Treat them as the first checks, not footnotes.
SEA/FDX is not the Baltic Dry Index; if shipping ETFs disagree with physical rates, mark soft.
One oil shock day can flip mood without a freight story — prefer streaks.
A violent dollar move can dominate both legs; check DXY before blaming freight.
Answers stay inside this page's dated figures.
