Earned Alpha

Wallets carrying a skill label ranked 2 of 4 groups and were right 47% of the time.

This page ignores reputation first. It scores completed wallet decisions, removes the wider market move and then checks whether older winners repeated.

Wallet recordDECISIONS
SMART
MONEY
record survives label removal
Wallets seen1,914Before the minimum record check
Wallets with a usable record146At least three completed decisions
Past decisions checked3,005Each has a later price result
Tokens covered18Across completed windows
Completed windows6No open window is scored
Skill-labelled wallets37Labels that claim trading ability
Labelled wallets right47%Share of completed decisions
Other wallets right53%The comparison group
Labelled result after market+2.3%Average wallet result
Labelled wallets losing41%Negative full records
Top past groupDescribed only+3.5%
Record without best wallet+2.1%Leader removed

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Does the label predict the record?

A skill label is an old description. The table shows what each group did after the wider market move was taken out.

Wallet groupWalletsAverage resultTypical resultRightLosing records
Described only38+3.5%+2.7%52%42%
Skill badge37+2.3%+3.4%47%41%
Named only25+2.0%+3.0%55%44%
No label46+1.5%+0.6%54%48%

Wallets carrying a skill label ranked 2 of 4 groups and were right 47% of the time. A reputation is not a live trading record.

Does the result depend on one winner?

The strongest wallet is removed before the average is read again.

All usable wallets+2.3%
Without best wallet+2.1%

The leader removal changes the average from +2.3% to +2.1%.

Research by for Charlie Quant Lab · Updated