Conviction Board
2 of 6 readings lean positive and 2 lean negative. Removing US dollar, the current average changes from -0.00 to +0.07.
This page keeps six different market readings separate, checks what happened after each one, removes the loudest current input and compares a fixed later-period rule with simply holding Bitcoin.
AGREES
DISAGREES
strong conviction survives the removal of its loudest input
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Which readings have earned attention?
Each reading is tested alone before it is allowed into the combined view.
| Reading | Now | Later result · positive | Later result · negative | Difference | Positive hit rate | Rows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | -0.37 | +3.3% | -3.4% | +6.7 pts | 55.0% | 140 |
| Futures cost | -0.16 | +3.6% | -1.3% | +4.9 pts | 57.9% | 19 |
| Stablecoin supply | -0.09 | -0.9% | -4.1% | +3.2 pts | 47.8% | 228 |
| Bitcoin trend | +0.36 | -0.8% | -3.9% | +3.0 pts | 48.5% | 237 |
| Equity stress | +0.18 | -0.3% | -3.2% | +2.9 pts | 48.8% | 162 |
| Technology shares | +0.05 | -2.4% | +8.3% | -10.7 pts | 39.7% | 199 |
2 of 6 readings lean positive and 2 lean negative. Removing US dollar, the current average changes from -0.00 to +0.07.
Did the rule work later?
The later 40% of the record was held back. A small cost is charged whenever the rule changes position.
This is a historical stress test, not a promise about the next move.